Шотландын тусгаар тогтнол ба Норвегийн баялгийн сан

Байгалийн баялаг. Өнөөдөр 2014 оны 9 дүгээр сарын 12. Хэдхэн өдрийн дараа Шотландын ард түмэн 300 жил хамт амьдарсан Британиас салан тусгаарлах эсэхээ шийдэхээр “Yes or No” бүх нийтийн санал асуулгад оролцох гэж байна. Британий Ерөнхий сайд Дэйвид Камерон хэрэв санал асуулгын дүн “Тийм” гэж гарвал туйлын харамсалтай үйл явдал болно гэж мэдэгдээд байна. Дээр, дооргүй маш их бужигнаж, үндсэрхэг шотландууд “тийм”-ийн төлөө үй зайгүй ажиллаж байгаа юм. http://www.yesscotland.net/

Yes Scotland campaign

Ийн тусгаар улс болж, өөрөө өөрсдийнхөө хувь заяаг шийдэхээр санаа шулуудсан голлох хэдэн шалтгааны нэг нь Европын холбооны нийт газрын тос, хийн нөөцийн 64 хувь нь Хойд тэнгис дэх Шотландын мэдлийн усанд байгаа явдал юм. Энэ нөөцийг одоогоор 4 триллион паундаар үнэлж байна.

Тусгаар улс болсны дараа яах вэ? Төсвийн бүрдүүлэлтийн ажлын хэсгийн төлөвлөж байгаагаар тэд Норвегийн жишээг дагана гэж байна. Тусгаар тогтносон Шотланд Хойд тэнгисээс орж ирэх орлогыг хэрхэн удирдах талаар “Норвеги улс бидэнд маш олон чухал хичээл заасан” гэж байна.

Норвеги болон Шотланд улсууд нь хүн амын тоо ойролцоо, мөн Хойд тэнгист “азын сугалаа” хожсон хоёр орон юм. Энэхүү “азын сугалаа”-ны үр дүнд Норвеги улс нь дэлхийн хамгийн баян баялгийн үндэсний санг үүсгэсэн юм.

North_sea_eez

Хойд тэнгисийн эзэмшил хуваарилалт. Британий хэсэг Шотландад очно

Шотланд яагаад Норвегийн туршлагыг хуулбарлах вэ? Норвегийн үндэсний баялгийн санг төр эзэмшдэг. Бараг мөнгө нь багтахаа байсан гэж хэлж болох бөгөөд гадаад улсуудад асар их хөрөнгө оруулалт хийгээд байна. GPFG буюу Засгийн газрын тэтгэврийн сан гэхэд түүнээс хавьгүй өмнө байгуулагдсан Кувейт, Саудын Араб, Арабын Эмират зэрэг улсын сангуудыг гүйцэд түрүүлж, 5 сая хүнийг 18 жилийн дотор 885 тэрбум доллартай болгожээ. Одоо тус улсын баялгийн сангийн хэмжээ дотоодын нийт бүтээгдэхүүнээсээ 2 дахин их буюу нэг хүнд 170,000 ам.доллар оногдох хэмжээтэй болсон байна.

Шотландын Байгалийн баялгийн удирдлагын институтын эдийн засгийн шинжээчийн хэлснээр “2000 оноос хойш улс орнуудад байгалийн нөөцийн 30 сан шинээр байгуулагдсан. Сан байгуулахаар төлөвлөж буй 14 улс байгаа. Норвегийн жишээг дагах хэрэгтэй. Байгалийн баялгаар баян орны сангууд зарим утгаараа үндэсний агаарын тээврийн компани эсвэл хөрөнгийн бирж болжээ” гэжээ.

Цөөн хүн амтай, жижиг улс байгалийн баялгийн орлогоос шууд хамааралтай байх бэрхшээлийг Норвеги улс тойроод гарсан гэж хэлж болно. Баялгийн орлогоос хэт хараат байх нь дэлхийн зах зээл дээр үнэ өсөх үед төр хэт цамаархдаг бол үнэ унах үед Засгийн газрын орлого тасалдаж, улс орны эдийн засаг урууддаг байна. Харин Норвеги улс баялгийн дэлхийн зах зээл дэх үнийн хэлбэлзлээс үл хамаарах системийг тогтоож чаджээ. Шотландын Байгалийн баялгийн удирдлагын институт нь сангийн хөрөнгийг зам, эмнэлгийн тоног төхөөрөмж, боловсрол зэрэгт хөрөнгө оруулахаар төлөвлөж байгаа ч сангийн мөнгийг буруу зарцуулах болон авилгалаас хол байлгаж, хамгаалахыг чухалчилж байна.

Голланд өвчин (Dutch disease). Шинэхэн Шотланд улсын анхаарах бас нэгэн асуудал гэнэ. 1960-аад оны үед илрүүлсэн байгалийн хийн орлого Голландын эдийн засагт ихээр орсноор цалин, инфляцийн өсөлтөөс шалтгаалан дотоодын компаниудын гадаад зах зээлд өрсөлдөх чадвар унаж, эдийн засагт ихээхэн хохирол учруулжээ. Энэ нь байгалийн баялгийн орлогыг дэндүү хяналтгүй чөлөөтэй зарцуулсны үр дагавар байсан юм. Үүнээс хойш байгалийн баялаг ихтэй улс орнууд “Голланд өвчин”-өөс болгоомжилдог болжээ.

Norway-May-002

Онолын хувьд Норвегийн хүн бүр америк долларын саятан юм

Норвегийн баялгийн сан хэр арвин бэ? Газрын тосны орлогын эхний үед барьц алдаж байсан Норвеги Байгалийн баялгийн сангийн мөнгийг дотоод эдийн засагт биш гадаадад хөрөнгө оруулах нь “голланд өвчин”-өөс сэргийлэх гол арга зам гэдгийг олж харсан байна. Төв банкны харьяа Хөрөнгө оруулалтын банк (Norges Bank Investment Management) гадаад орнуудад оруулах хөрөнгө оруулалтыг амжилттай удирдснаар дэлхийн 80 гаруй оронд Норвегийн 885 тэрбум долларыг амжилттай байршуулаад байна. Үүний 60 хувь нь 8,200 гаруй компаний хувьцаанд орсон бөгөөд энэ нь Европын биржид бүртгэлтэй компаний 2 хувийг эзэлж байна. Үлдсэн 40 орчим хувь Засгийн газруудын бондыг худалдан авсан ба 1 орчим хувь нь худалдааны зорилгоор Лондонгийн үл хөдлөх хөрөнгийг аваад байгаа ажээ.

800px-Jens_Stoltenberg

Женс Столтенберг. 2000-2001, 2005-2013 онуудад Норвегийн Ерөнхий сайд; одоо НАТО-гийн ерөнхий нарийн бичгийн дарга

Амжилтын үндэс, зохицуулалт. Энэхүү амжилтынхаа талаар 2013 онд Харвардын Кеннедигийн сургуульд Норвегийн Ерөнхий сайд Ж.Столберг хэлэхдээ: “Хуулийн дагуу газрын тос, байгалийн хийн бүх орлого сан руу орно. Харин сангаас бид зөвхөн санхүүгийн үр ашгийг зарцуулдаг. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, бид байгалийн баялгийн орлогоос шууд зарлага огт гаргадаггүй, нэг ч цент үрдэггүй, зөвхөн хөрөнгө оруулалтын үр ашиг, хүү зэрэг санхүүгийн үр өгөөжийг зарцуулдаг тул сангийн хөрөнгө мөнхөд арвижих юм” гэжээ.

Шинэхэн тусгаар Шотланд улс Норвегийн амжилтыг давтаж чадах болов уу.

Монголчууд бидэнд мөн “азын сугалаа” таараагүй гэж үү?

 

Ж.Столбергийн Харвардад өгсөн ярилцлагыг сонсох

Норвегийн Засгийн газрын тэтгэврийн сангийн интернэт хуудас (Англи хэл дээр)

101597746-Premium_-_Norway_-0140421.530x298

Lifestyle in Norway

101294697-142403819.530x298

Oil, Gas – Norway

Screenshot 2014-09-12 16.52.51

Шотландын эдийн засгийн боломж

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